In North Africa and the Middle East, ports had much to lose or gain in the Red Sea crisis, which completely disrupted the maritime transport schedule. The resilient Tanger Med has further gained in attractiveness, while the decline of Port Said is striking. This situation is illuminated by the work of Ronan Kerbiriou and Yann Alix, who analyze the strategies of shipowners.
The crisis in the Red Sea, which forces a battalion of ships to make extra ton-miles to avoid the war-risk zone, is an economic catastrophe for the Middle East and North African economies and some of its ports, an ecological aberration (surge in CO2 emissions), and an operational nonsense (increased operating expenses and insurance premiums, partially offset by Suez toll savings).
Imposed by force majeure in this inhospitable sea since the Shiite Yemeni group has been firing anti-ship ballistic missiles, the change in course comes at a high cost for some.
It weighs on less developed economies: significant currency losses for Egypt with a domino effect on East African countries like Djibouti, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan heavily reliant on the Suez Canal for their foreign trade; decreased traffic in certain Middle Eastern ports (Jebel Ali, Salalah, Jeddah, or King Abdullah); increased calls at some ports in the Maghreb with Tanger Med under strain and Port Said sidelined; feederization with loss of maritime connectivity for Sub-Saharan African ports…
Winning Transshipment
To meet their transit-time requirements, some shipowners are canceling less profitable stops and consolidating ships in certain hubs, increasing pressure on key ports where shipowners choose to transship, particularly in Southeast Asia (Shanghai, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Singapore, Port Kelang, Tanjung Pelepas…) and the Mediterranean (Tanger Med, Barcelona, and Algeciras).
« Port-by-port analyses in each Mediterranean zone reveal how shipowners adjust their rotations and capacities almost in real time according to the terminals. Transshipment ports are least impacted in absolute terms and gain market share relative to their gateway competitors, » confirms Yann Alix, Secretary General of the Sefacil Foundation, a maritime and port resources and analysis center.
Alongside Ronan Kerbiriou, research engineer at the University of Le Havre and PhD student at CNAM-Paris, the two researchers track vessel movements and shipowners’ strategies along the African and Mediterranean coasts since much of the containerized maritime traffic has been diverted there.
The snapshot based on analysis, using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, of total capacities deployed for each call and port based on ship size 120 days before and after the first Houthi attack, sheds light on the domino effects of the Red Sea crisis.
Collapse of Port Said
The collapse of Port Said, which lost 8.5 MEVP of deployed capacity in four months according to their research, is striking in its magnitude and rapidity.
« This situation is due to the loss of the largest container ships, both eastbound and westbound, and affects all other competing hubs in Eastern and Central Mediterranean. Port Said lost 195 calls, including 158 for units over 18,000 TEUs, » decodes Yann Alix.
According to their research, companies have massively deployed units under 5,000 TEUs that continue to transit the Suez Canal under secure escort, while larger vessels, 15,000 TEUs and above, systematically bypass the continent via the Cape of Good Hope. This trend is evident in Egyptian ports like Port Said and Damietta, where calls for 15,000+ TEU units dropped from over 300 to less than 100.
Conversely, in segments above 15,000 TEUs, Tanger Med has become the top port of call in Mediterranean trade, surpassing even Algiers, its twin across the Strait of Gibraltar. « Tanger Med emerges as the one capitalizing most on this crisis situation, enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of Moroccan terminals, chosen more systematically than their immediate competitors in Algiers and Valencia, » confirm the researchers.
Adjustment Strategies
This snapshot also highlights operational adjustment strategies. « For example, Maersk or CMA CGM alternated between the two routes, causing delays and even service postponements that impacted all Mediterranean ports. Cosco quickly moved boxes from Asia to northern European range ports and then organized degraded services with smaller vessels to Mediterranean markets, » explains Yann Alix.
A significant recent trend is that West Mediterranean ports have gained market share over Eastern ones, thanks to the crisis. With 27.64 MEVP (compared to 30.36 MEVP before the crisis) in terms of deployed capacity, they limited losses compared to their Eastern neighbors (43.89 MEVP before the crisis against 26.85 MEVP today).
Also, the market share of large container ships in the Mediterranean has completely reversed in favor of the West. The Eastern Mediterranean has lost 5.7 MEVP in 4 months, nearly 60% of pre-crisis volumes. On ships over 18,000 TEUs, the loss on the East Coast is seven times greater than on the West.
Note: In the World Bank’s recent report on port productivity for 2023, Tanger Med and Port Said rank first and third respectively in the Northern Europe and Mediterranean region from this perspective. Far ahead of major port machines such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Hamburg.
Source: actu-transport-logistique
