While the Catalan region is still reeling from the floods that devastated several cities in the Valencia metropolitan area, Spain, a report released during COP29 warns about the future threats facing the Mediterranean Basin due to climate change.
According to the report produced by 55 experts from the MedECC network, nearly 20 million people living in the Mediterranean region could be forced to relocate permanently by 2100 due to rising sea levels.
Towards a sea level rise of more than one meter?
According to scientists, the Mediterranean coastline is one of the regions in the world most exposed to « severe flooding. » In recent years, the sea level has risen by 2.8 mm per year. However, climate change is expected to worsen the situation: « By 2100, according to the scenario, the average sea level in the basin will likely be 37 to 90 cm higher than at the end of the 20th century, with a low probability that it will rise by more than 110 cm.
In some areas, coastal retreat could reach up to 60 meters.
This rise in sea levels will also be accompanied by an increase in the temperature of both surface and deep waters, leading to ocean acidification.
Flora and fauna could be particularly affected by climate change, with a significant influx of non-native, and even harmful, species. This change in the ecosystem could also damage agricultural activity in the Mediterranean Basin. To mitigate this risk, researchers recommend significant adaptations to agricultural practices, including « promoting traditional Mediterranean diets, local production, and reducing food waste. »
Roads, trains, airports…
According to the report, the rise in sea levels also threatens transport networks, which are located very close to the coast and are therefore particularly exposed to flooding and erosion risks.
More intense rainfall, more frequent heatwaves
In addition to the direct consequences for the Mediterranean Sea, climate change will be accompanied by « more frequent and intense extreme events, » predict the scientists.
Heavy rainfall episodes are expected to intensify in the northern Mediterranean. These events will become less frequent, giving way to longer and more intense drought periods.
« In the future, the duration and maximum temperatures of heatwaves will intensify. » With global warming, temperatures in the region will also exceed the global average annual temperature by 20%. During the summer, this increase could even exceed 50%.
Source: lindependant
