Tunisia has substantially raised its climate ambition for 2035, according to the preliminary draft of its next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) published on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) website.
Still at the draft stage, this document updates Tunisia’s last NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021. It redefines the country’s climate strategy as the international community gathers in Belém, Brazil, for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30).
The draft proposes a 62% reduction in carbon intensity by 2035 (with an interim target of 46.2% by 2030), marking a significant leap compared to the 2021 NDC, which targeted a 45% overall reduction by 2030. Without international support, Tunisia sets a target of 31% (with an interim target of 28% by 2030), compared to 27% in the previous NDC.
Regarding net emissions, the country aims to reduce them to 24 MtCO2e (metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) by 2035 (from 35 MtCO2e in 2010), thereby avoiding approximately 152 MtCO2e of cumulative net emissions over 2026–2035 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. About 81% of the reductions are expected to come from the energy sector and 14% from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses.
Another major development is the extended implementation period, now set for 2026–2035. This marks Tunisia’s entry into longer-term climate planning. While sectoral coverage remains the same (energy, industrial processes, agriculture and land use, waste, and major greenhouse gases), the draft introduces for the first time a structured mitigation pathway through 2035, including cumulative volumes of avoided emissions.
The adaptation dimension is also strengthened. While the 2021 NDC focused on water, agriculture, coastal areas, and health, the new version expands the scope to include biodiversity, training, social inclusion, and youth, with plans to establish quantified targets for 2030 and 2035.
However, the most ambitious scenario depends on substantial international support, both financial and technological.
Compared to the previous NDC, which estimated needs at around USD 19.4 billion for 2021–2030, the total funding required under the updated Tunisian climate plan—including capacity building, technology transfer, and cross-cutting support—is estimated at approximately USD 28.22 billion by 2035.
Source: webmanagercenter
