In a context marked by rising geopolitical tensions and the proliferation of high-risk maritime zones, maritime transport insurance is once again becoming a central parameter of the global economy. Rising premiums, and even the introduction of exclusion clauses on certain strategic corridors, directly threaten the fluidity of international trade. For Africa, heavily dependent on imports of energy products, cereals, and fertilizers, these developments represent a major challenge to the stability of supply chains. In this interview, Manuel Moses, CEO of ATIDI (African Trade & Investment Development Insurance), analyzes the implications of these upheavals and outlines ways to strengthen the continent’s trade resilience.
There has been a significant increase in insurance premiums related to high-risk maritime zones. What could be the impact of this inflation in insurance costs on African supply chains, particularly for strategic imports such as energy, cereals, or fertilizers?
Although no African country is a direct importer of Iranian crude oil, the disruptions affecting exporters in Asia and the Middle East, coupled with rising global prices, will have a profound impact on African markets. Imports of refined petroleum products to the continent have ground to a halt, creating volatility for many African economies that rely on them. The impacts will be multifaceted and varied, and governments across the continent will need to assess how long their reserves can meet local demand and how they can manage the inevitable increases in import costs. A 2025 report by the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) highlights the continent’s precarious dependence on refined petroleum product imports. Despite being a major crude oil producer, approximately 70% of the refined petroleum products consumed in Africa are imported, particularly gas oil and diesel, which are primarily sourced from the Gulf States, India, and Europe (the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, and Italy). Because of this dependence, any disruption to the corridors and production sites in the Gulf region will quickly lead to shortages and increased import costs. This is expected to weaken local currencies, strengthen the dollar, and increase the cost of external debt. These tensions are occurring at a time of slight improvement for many African economies, where inflation was returning to more manageable levels after a period of fiscal tightening.
The emerging situation is similar to that imposed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Developing African value chains is essential to minimizing the vulnerability of economies to external shocks. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria, for example, offers an alternative for the supply of refined products, with minimal transportation risks. Numerous projects are underway to safeguard the continent’s supply in various key sectors in the event of international crises that often lead to shortages, cost increases, and other disruptions. Furthermore, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz presents an opportunity to develop intra-African value chains for many commodities, thereby boosting intra-regional trade.
ATIDI has ideal insurance products for financiers, exporters and entrepreneurs who invest in projects that strengthen value chains and the continent’s resilience to international crises.
In your view, the role of institutions like ATIDI is often described as that of a catalyst for investor confidence. Can guarantee mechanisms also play a role in stabilizing trade flows when private insurers become more cautious?
The ongoing international crises will inevitably impact the supply chains of many African countries. This market instability will push investments towards safe-haven assets and dampen the appetite for investment in emerging markets. ATIDI’s counter-cyclical support allows trade and investment to continue even during periods of slowdown or crisis. Thanks to our high rating, we cover certain risks directly, but we are also able to mobilize reinsurers and syndicate risk-taking. This is essential to continue insuring projects even during periods of economic slowdown, which often coincide with a reduced appetite for risk. Our strong relationships with our member states and our market enable us to support trade even in times of crisis. Furthermore, the financial innovations and reforms we support allow us to continue supporting governments and private investors in a sustainable and prudent manner.
With escalating international tensions and the return of the risk of war to economic calculations, insurance is becoming almost a tool of economic sovereignty. Is Africa sufficiently prepared to manage this type of systemic shock?
ATIDI covers risks in African markets that international insurers are unable to cover. We are the leader in this field and were created to fulfill this role. ATIDI provides insurance, co-insurance, and reinsurance that make it easier for investors to engage in Africa and reduce the continent’s dependence on international insurers.
Our interventions offer local insurance solutions, strengthen our autonomy, and facilitate the investments that drive African economic sovereignty. We do not compete with local insurers. On the contrary, we support them by providing additional capacity for complex risk management. At least 51% of our capital must be held by African member states. In fact, we work primarily in Africa and for Africa. Our support for the Regional Customs Transit Guarantee Scheme (RCTG) clearly illustrates this approach. The RCTG helps reduce the costs and delays of cross-border transport across Africa through a single guarantee, thereby supporting economic integration on the continent.
By covering the risk of non-payment by states, ATIDI strengthens investor confidence and offers alternative solutions to those of international insurers. This makes us a key player in development financing.
The implementation of the AfCFTA relies on the smooth flow of intra-African trade. In a world where maritime routes are becoming more uncertain, do you see an opportunity to strengthen regional African logistics corridors and insurance mechanisms?
Absolutely. The current volatility of maritime routes requires Africa to implement homegrown solutions and accelerate the development of logistics corridors across the continent, while also providing insurance mechanisms—two fundamental elements for the successful implementation of the AfCFTA. That said, this urgency existed even before the current crisis.
The current disruptions to maritime trade highlight the risks the continent faces due to its dependence on external supply chains. This should accelerate the development of African logistics infrastructure, which will reduce costs and strengthen our region’s self-sufficiency. Connecting the continent’s main trading hubs by road, rail, and sea is urgent. For example, infrastructure such as the Abidjan-Lagos corridor and the Mombasa-Kigali corridor should be strengthened. Border transit must also be improved by implementing solutions such as a single guarantee valid across the continent or a single customs window, which will reduce transit times and, consequently, logistics costs. Finally, more investment is needed in ports, dry ports, warehouses, cold chains, and other infrastructure to improve the capacity to manage the increasing volume of intra-African trade.
Strengthening African insurance solutions to better withstand external shocks is an urgent need that existed long before the current crisis. Greater collaboration is needed in African insurance and reinsurance markets. This will allow for the consolidation—and therefore expansion—of coverage capacity, the provision of solutions tailored to local needs, and enhanced resilience to future crises.
Finally, in a scenario where several strategic maritime areas become difficult to insure, do you think Africa will have to rethink its overall trade strategy – particularly by strengthening regional integration, land infrastructure and development insurance?
Beyond current international tensions, Africa must revitalize its internal trade flows and increase market access between African countries. This priority cannot be tied to the current geopolitical context. It is fundamental to the continent’s sustainable economic emergence. And risk mitigation solutions like ours are essential to guarantee the continent’s development, whether in times of growth or crisis.
source : financial afrik
