SadaNews – The world seems to be heading for a multi-front world maritime war stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to the North Sea, the repercussions of which may not be limited to oil prices, but also threaten the international system based on freedom of navigation and maritime law, in a context of rising unilateralism among the great powers.
The writer of the British Guardian Simon Tisdall states that the American military campaign to protect merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz is not the first of its kind historically, since the United States had already sent a fleet to the Mediterranean in the 1820s to protect their trade against pirates.
Tisdall specifies that the American objective at the time – as is the case today – was not to promote democracy or change regimes, but to protect economic and commercial interests. He points out that Washington has historically defended the principle of freedom of navigation, despite its refusal to ratify the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
According to the writer, President Donald Trump’s administration weakened this principle when it threatened to impose passage duties in the Strait of Hormuz before partially backing down, while confirming the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran regarding the right of Tehran and Oman to collect transit revenue, which the author considers as a precedent that could encourage other countries to adopt similar measures.
Maritime tensions
Tisdall warns that this turning point could lead countries controlling strategic maritime corridors – such as Indonesia in the Strait of Malacca, Turkey in the Strait of the Bosphorus or Spain in the Strait of Gibraltar – to impose fees on ships, which could disrupt world trade and supply chains, especially since about 80% of world trade in volume transits by sea.
The writer believes that maritime tensions are not limited to the Middle East, but also extend to the Red Sea, where the Houthis – allies of Iran – have begun to impose a blockade on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and target oil tankers, an approach he considers an extension of the Hormuz crisis and a new threat to global energy markets.
In East Asia, Tisdall reports an escalation of confrontations in the South China Sea and the Pacific around Taiwan, accusing Beijing of neglecting international law by building military islands and strengthening its territorial claims, despite the decision of the Permanent Arbitration Court in 2016 which rejected most of its sovereign claims.
He also highlights the intensification of tensions between China and Japan after Chinese destroyers conducted live ammunition exercises in the Japanese economic zone, due to fears of a clash in Taiwan.
Grey zone war
Tisdall adds that Russia represents another front in this maritime conflict, having expanded its military operations in the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic and the North Sea, intensifying its activity near European maritime infrastructures, including pipelines and communications cables, in what he calls « the gray zone war ». He also considers that the recent Russian naval maneuvers near the British coast reflect an increase in confrontation with NATO.
The writer reviews a series of incidents that he believes confirm the decline in the commitment to international law, such as the sinking by the United States of an Iranian ship near Sri Lanka, the clashes between China and the Philippines, President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, and Chinese nuclear submarine tests, all events that fuel an accelerated naval arms race and push other countries to increase their defense spending and strengthen their maritime capabilities.
Finally, Tisdall concludes that the world is witnessing a gradual collapse of the rules of maritime cooperation that have formed over the centuries, with a decline in respect for international law and common interests, and with the establishment of a policy of force accomplished facts to replace international consensus, thus threatening freedom of navigation, trade and global security.
