Nairobi, 21 October 2026 – With a global temperature rise to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and strict reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of the overrun and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century, according to a new UNEP report.
The 2026 Emission Gap Report: The point examines a scenario of exceeding the lowest possible 1.5°C, in which the maximum warming towards the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and where the rise in global temperature is restored to 1.5°C or below by 2100, with a a 50% chance.
To follow this path, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions should be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all proportionally to 2025 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the nationally determined contributions (NDC) would reduce emissions by only 5 to 8% by 2030 and by 11 to 15% by 2035, compared to 2025 levels. This implies average annual reduction rates of 5.7% for 2025-2035, higher than the old sixth (AR6) routes traced by the IPCC, which required annual reduction rates of about 5%.
« Overtaking is not surrendering. We can still keep it as small and short as possible – and bring temperatures below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, « said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a message on the report. “The new report on the emission gap of the United Nations Environment Programme shows us what will be needed: to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 – compared to 2025 levels. «
However, the report reveals that there are more opportunities than ever to accelerate action. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has experienced a significant boom, total coal and oil supply has increased more slowly than expected, and climate policies have reduced emissions in many places.
« Every fraction of an additional degree and every additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as deadly floods, heat waves and forest fires that have hit many countries this year, » said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UNEP. « We must therefore do everything we can to minimize the warming peak and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. It’s possible.
« We have a multitude of successes showing that emissions can be quickly reduced. It is now up to nations to urgently implement policies that trigger rapid, deep and sustainable emission reductions, and put the world on the path to a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies. «
Temperature projections remain far too high
The report concludes that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C during this century and increase thereafter. If all NDCs are carried out and similar efforts continue, warming will be limited to 2.6°C. These results are worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. The new NDCs submitted since last year’s report had a negligible difference for these projections.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional carbon neutrality targets would be achieved, global warming would be limited to only 2.1°C during this century. Without urgent action, maintaining maximum warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible. Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels push the peak of warming by about 0.1°C.
In addition, the lowest possible overrun scenario of 1.5°C creates a need for atmospheric withdrawal and permanent storage of about 320 gigatons of CO2 (equivalent to about eight years of global CO in 20242 during this century. However, socio-economic and technological challenges make the chances of achieving this uncertain.
Successful climate efforts must be strengthened
Returning to 1.5°C or below is possible, especially since evidence shows more and more that climate policies around the world can and have reduced emissions. The report links the introduction or strengthening of climate-related policies to dozens of structural changes in developed and developing countries, resulting in significant reductions in emissions.
More than 220 policy evaluations provide additional proof of what’s working. Policies assessed in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9%, while economic instruments, including carbon capping and exchange systems and carbon taxes, reduced by 5 to 13% in all sectors during the planned assessment period. However, these successes remain concentrated in specific sectors, countries and periods. Reaching the lowest possible overrun passage of 1.5°C requires reproducing, extending and maintaining these successes.
Acceleration of the implementation of Global Stocktake objectives
At the first Global Inventory (GST), countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity and double the annual pace of energy efficiency improvement by 2030, to switch from fossil fuels to energy systems, to reduce non-carbon monooxidant products2 emissions, stop and vice versa of deforestation and forest degradation, and more.
However, recent rates of change on all indicators according to absolute GHG emissions – including CO2 emissions in energy systems, road transport emissions and non-CO2 emissions Emissions, including methane emissions – are going in the wrong direction. Although current policy scenarios predict that some of these emissions will stabilize by 2030, none shows the speed and scale decreases necessary to minimize the magnitude and duration of the 1.5°C overrun.
The second GST can build on the first by reaffirming priority areas of action for mitigation, extending the quantified objectives until 2035 and 2040, and making existing areas of action more tangible through clearer and, where possible, quantified objectives. The report provides a preliminary assessment of these extensions until 2035 and 2040, in accordance with the 1.5°C lowest overrun scenario.
For the objective to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvement, an extension to 2035 would mean at least tripling renewable electricity capacity and reducing GDP primary energy intensity by at least 30% compared to 2025 levels. For 2040, these estimates increase to at least 4.5 times and at least 40% respectively.
The good news is that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global renewable electricity capacity has tripled the expected time, with sevenfold faster growth in photovoltaic solar production. Continuing these trends, supported by additional policies, would allow the world to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and increase the share of wind and solar power in electricity production to levels compatible with the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario.
Extending the goal of the transition of fossil fuels into energy systems would require a global reduction in the share of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply by at least 55, 15% and 5% by 2035 compared to 2025. Reductions of at least 75, 30 and 35% would be necessary in 2040.
At the same time, electricity production from coal is expected to decrease by at least 75% in 2035 compared to 2025 and be effectively eliminated globally by 2040. Methane emissions are expected to be at least 25% lower than 2025 levels by 2035 and at least 40% lower by 2040.
NOTES TO EDITORS
About the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
UNEP is the world’s leading voice in the environment. It provides leadership and encourages partnership in environmental care by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.
