Despite scientific warnings, global warming continues to intensify. The concentration of greenhouse gases has never been higher in the atmosphere than in 2024, researchers warn. Here is an overview of the latest climate studies published ahead of COP29, which is taking place until November 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The evolution of the climate is closely monitored by researchers worldwide. As COP29 opened on Monday, November 11, 2024, in Azerbaijan, scientists are once again sounding the alarm. Temperatures, oceans, CO2 levels… The indicators reveal a deterioration of the situation and highlight the largely inadequate efforts of the wealthiest countries. Here’s what the latest climate studies have revealed.
- Record Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Despite our efforts, emissions continue to rise. In 2023, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached new records, the UN warned on Monday, October 28. CO2 is accumulating faster than ever, with an increase of over 10% in two decades. And as long as emissions continue, temperatures will rise, laments the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), overseen by the UN, which believes these figures should « sound the alarm among decision-makers. »
« These are more than just statistics. Every part per million [the unit of CO2 measurement in the atmosphere] and every fraction of a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet, » said Celeste Saulo, the WMO Secretary-General. Especially since these greenhouse gases remain stored in the atmosphere, worsening global warming for the years to come.
- Insufficient Reduction in Emissions
For 2030, countries have provided their climate roadmap. The problem: in the latest documents submitted, national climate action plans have made little progress compared to last year and « are far from meeting the needs » in terms of fighting climate change, emphasized UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell on Monday, October 28. Indeed, the current climate commitments of countries are projected to lead to only a 2.6% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019. This is far from the 43% reduction recommended to hope for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, warned UN Climate just before COP29.
« The pollution from greenhouse gases at these levels will guarantee a human and economic disaster for all countries, without exception, » warns Simon Stiell. The UN, through its Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, has called on countries to make a « quantum leap » in the fight against global warming.
- « Irreversible » Consequences if Warming Exceeds 1.5°C
It took three years of work by 30 international scientists to reach this conclusion, published on October 9 in the scientific journal Nature. Any climate warming, even temporarily, beyond the 1.5°C limit would lead to « irreversible » consequences for the future of humanity. These consequences would span millennia.In such a trajectory, « tipping points » would be reached. For example, the thawing of permafrost and peat bogs, two vast carbon reservoirs, would release enormous volumes of greenhouse gases if they were to disappear. Sea levels could also rise by an additional 40 centimeters, which would become a matter of life or death for island nations.
The evolution of the climate is being closely monitored by researchers around the world. As COP29 opened on Monday, November 11, 2024, in Azerbaijan, scientists are once again sounding the alarm. Temperatures, oceans, CO2 levels… The indicators reveal a deterioration of the situation and highlight the widely insufficient efforts of the wealthiest countries. Here’s what the latest climate studies have revealed.
- Record concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Despite our efforts, emissions continue to rise. In 2023, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere reached new records, the UN warned on Monday, October 28. CO2 is accumulating faster than ever in the atmosphere, with a rise of more than 10% over the past two decades. And as long as emissions continue, temperatures will rise, laments the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is overseen by the UN, stating that these figures should “sound the alarm among decision-makers.”
“These are more than just statistics. Each part per million [the unit of CO2 in the atmosphere] and each fraction of a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet,” said Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO. This is especially critical since these greenhouse gases remain stored in the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming in the years to come.
- An insufficient reduction in emissions
For 2030, countries have provided their climate action roadmap. The problem: in the most recent documents submitted, national climate action plans have barely progressed compared to last year and “are far from meeting the needs” in terms of tackling climate change, highlighted UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell on Monday, October 28.
In fact, the current climate commitments of countries will only lead to a 2.6% decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2019. This falls far short of the 43% needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as warned by UN Climate ahead of COP29.
These commitments are made by the 195 countries that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement, which represented 95% of global emissions in 2019.
“Pollution from greenhouse gases at these levels will guarantee a human and economic disaster for all countries, without exception,” warned Simon Stiell. The UN has called on countries, through the voice of its Secretary-General António Guterres, to make a “quantum leap” in the fight against global warming.
- “Irreversible” consequences if warming exceeds 1.5°C
It took three years of work by 30 international scientists to reach this conclusion, published on October 9 in the scientific journal Nature. Any climate warming, even temporarily, beyond the 1.5°C threshold would lead to “irreversible consequences” for the future of humanity. These consequences would span millennia.
In such a trajectory, “tipping points” would be reached. For example: the thawing of permafrost and peat bogs, two vast carbon reservoirs, would release enormous volumes of greenhouse gases if they disappeared. Sea levels could also rise by an additional 40 centimeters, which would become a matter of life or death for island nations.
Humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions are approaching a peak, but the decline has not yet begun, even though they must be reduced by nearly half by 2030 to hope to stay within the 1.5°C limit. Given the delay, some scientists and policymakers now consider crossing this 1.5°C threshold inevitable. According to the European Copernicus Institute, October 2024 was the second hottest October ever recorded. It is now “virtually certain” that the temperature for 2024 will be more than 1.5°C higher than the period from 1850 to 1900, marking a first.
- Oceans are warming faster than ever
According to a report by the European Copernicus Observatory released at the end of September, ocean warming is accelerating globally. Specifically: the waters are warming at a rate of 1.05 watts per square meter since 2005, compared to 0.58 watts per square meter in the previous decades.
“Ocean warming can be considered our sentinel of climate change,” highlighted oceanographer Karina Von Schuckmann, presenting the 8th Copernicus report on the state of the oceans. These results corroborate the reports from the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
This warming is the result of the “excess heat” caused by massive greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Since the 1970s, the oceans have absorbed 90% of this excess heat. Their preservation is a major issue for climate regulation: warmer waters lead to more intense hurricanes and storms, with their resulting destruction and flooding.
- A major Atlantic current is at risk of collapsing
Another imminent danger, warn about forty researchers in an open letter to the leaders of the Nordic Council on Monday, October 28, is the faster-than-anticipated collapse of a complex system of ocean currents in the Atlantic, known as the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).
This system of currents, which includes the Gulf Stream, helps regulate heat between the tropics and the northern hemisphere and is therefore crucial for living conditions in the Arctic. However, the collapse of this system would trigger a tipping point, leading to a cascade of disasters.
When could it collapse? Not before 2100, according to climate experts appointed by the UN. However, these scientists warn that it could occur “within the next few decades.” « The impacts, particularly on Nordic countries, would likely be catastrophic, including a major cooling of the region while surrounding areas warm, » they note. And its effects would also « likely » be felt on a global scale.
- Deadly floods in Africa are worsened by global warming
Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, and Sudan… In 2024, unprecedented flooding caused at least hundreds of deaths and millions of displaced people across the African continent. Scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network demonstrated, in a study published at the end of October, that climate change has indeed contributed to exacerbating the phenomenon.
Researchers also estimate that climate change has made this year’s torrential rains around five to 20% more intense in the Niger and Lake Chad basins, citing a previous WWA study on similar floods in 2022.
“This will only worsen if we continue burning fossil fuels,” warned researcher Clair Barnes from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. Although Africa contributes only 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change.
Source: ouest-france
