« Do we want the Arctic Ocean to become a new South China Sea, burdened by militarization and competing territorial claims? Do we want the fragile Arctic environment to be exposed to ecological devastation caused by China’s fishing trawlers off its shores or to unchecked industrial activity on its territory? » These were the concerns expressed in May 2019 by Michael Pompeo, then U.S. Secretary of State, at the Arctic Council in Rovaniemi, Finland.
Indeed, it is clear that the Arctic, a frozen territory rich in resources, is gradually becoming a theater of international rivalries. The exploitation of natural resources and the opening of new shipping routes have placed this region at the center of global geopolitical concerns. Beyond economic interests, a true power struggle is underway, with historical actors like Russia and Canada, as well as distant countries like China, trying to assert their influence. In this fragile balance, the Arctic represents both a hope for prosperity and a source of tensions, where attempts at cooperation could well clash with the vices of competition.
Geopolitics of the Arctic: A Region Under High Tension. Melting Ice in the Arctic.
Photograph of the melting ice in the Arctic, a process accelerated by climate change.
The Arctic: A Region Rich in Natural Resources
The Arctic is abundant in valuable natural resources. The Arctic waters produce 15% of the world’s fish, seafood, and shellfish catches, making it a key area for the fishing industry. But it is especially the subsoil that is attracting attention: in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that the region contained 13% of the world’s oil reserves and 30% of the world’s natural gas reserves. These resources are crucial at a time when the energy transition is redefining global demand.
The Arctic is also rich in rare metals such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and uranium, essential for the production of green technologies. Greenland, for example, holds significant reserves of rare earth metals, although a majority of its population rejected their exploitation in 2021, prioritizing environmental preservation.
Finally, Arctic tourism is experiencing rapid growth. In 2019, it already generated 2.5 billion USD and could reach 15 billion USD by 2030, according to the Arctic Economic Council.
Indigenous Populations Facing Resource Exploitation
The indigenous populations of the Arctic (about 4 million people) traditionally depend on herding, hunting, and fishing. The Sami in Fennoscandia engage in reindeer herding, while the Inuit in Canada, Greenland, and Alaska survive through hunting and fishing.
Industrial resource exploitation disrupts these ways of life. Extractive projects fragment Sami grazing lands, while oil spills, such as those seen in Russia, pollute ecosystems on which local communities depend.
The Arctic: A Strategic Region for International Trade
Arctic shipping routes are reshaping global trade. There are currently four main routes.
The Northeast Passage (NEP) is the most traveled (227 vessels in 2018). It runs along the northern coast of Scandinavia, connecting the port of Murmansk to the Bering Strait. This route reduces the distance by 40% compared to a crossing through the Suez Canal (such as the Shanghai-Rotterdam route). At the Arctic Forum in June 2019 in Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin announced that the annual volume transported through the Northeast Passage had reached 20 million tons in 2018.
The Northwest Passage (NWP) also connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. It passes between the Arctic islands of northern Canada, through the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea. However, this passage, navigable only during the short Arctic summer, remains little used by international trade players.
The Arctic Bridge, between Murmansk in Russia and Churchill in Canada, suffers from harsh climatic conditions and remains a project.
Similarly, the Trans-Arctic Route remains hypothetical due to the presence of ice in the central Arctic Ocean, posing major constraints for navigation. However, this route could become viable quickly if ice melting intensifies.
China and Russia: Arctic Powers?
With its 24,000 kilometers of Arctic coastline and its fleet of nuclear icebreakers, Russia asserts itself as the « Arctic superpower » par excellence. Moscow controls the majority of the Northeast Passage and intensively exploits regional natural resources. The militarization of the Arctic strengthens this Russian supremacy: the Murmansk military base, modernized in 2014, houses 50% of the country’s nuclear submarine fleet.
China, despite being geographically distant from the Arctic, also asserts itself as a key player in the region. In 1989, Chinese authorities created the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute to engage in scientific cooperation with Arctic-bordering countries. Currently, China seeks to strengthen its economic and strategic influence in the region. Beijing is particularly interested in exploiting natural resources, opening new shipping routes, and conducting scientific research related to climate change.
In a White Paper published in 2018, Xi Jinping described China as a « quasi-Arctic state »; an expansion that is not recognized by the international community. Since then, Xi Jinping has incorporated this area into the « New Silk Roads » and encourages the development of a « polar silk road » connecting Europe to China. This route could prove particularly useful to bypass dangerous passages such as the Strait of Malacca or the Suez Canal.
A Complex Territorial Delimitation
Since the entry into force of the Montego Bay Convention in 1994, many Arctic-bordering countries have attempted to claim areas rich in natural resources.
In 2004, Denmark was the first country to submit a claim regarding the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of the Arctic Ocean. Danish authorities suggested that the North Pole is an extension of Greenland’s continental shelf and that, therefore, Denmark’s EEZ should be reassessed and expanded.
Disputes over EEZs also reflect deep rivalries. Russia, which claims much of the Arctic Ocean’s waters, has been working since the early 2000s to assert its sovereignty over the region. On August 2, 2007, as part of the « Arctic 2007 » operation, explorers planted a Russian flag at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, a powerful symbol echoing Cold War rivalries.
The Arctic: A Battleground for Great Powers?
Canada, in its desire to assert leadership in the region, filed in 2019 a dossier to extend the limits of its continental shelf (1.2 million square kilometers of seabed and subsoil in the Arctic Ocean were claimed). In 2022, Eilís Quinn, head of the site « Arctic Watch, » claimed that Canada sought to extend its claims, further overlapping with Russia in the Arctic.
Moreover, China’s expansionist ambitions in the Arctic worry the United States. In 2019, during the Arctic Council in Rovaniemi, Michael Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State, stated: « There are Arctic states and non-Arctic states. There is no third category, and claiming otherwise gives China no rights. »
Finally, the militarization of the Arctic is a legacy of the Cold War, a period during which the region was a theater of confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Geopolitical analyst François Thual describes the Arctic as « one of the testbeds for global nuclear deterrence. Russians and Americans test next-generation submarines there. » This dynamic persists, fueled by recurring military exercises. This was the case in 2021, when Russia launched the Umka-2021 expedition, mobilizing 200 units of military equipment.
The Arctic Council: An Effective Governance?
The governance of the Arctic is regulated by the Arctic Council, created in 1996 and comprising 8 member states (Canada, Denmark, United States, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden) and representatives of indigenous populations. This forum serves as a space for discussion between Arctic-bordering countries and local authorities. It allows for addressing environmental and geopolitical issues in the region. However, disputes between stakeholders are frequent and limit the effectiveness of the organization. Furthermore, since 2014, rivalries between Russia and the West have blocked many initiatives, reinforcing the specter of military escalation.
In conclusion, the Arctic stands at a strategic crossroads, where economic interests and geopolitical rivalries converge. Precious resources and shipping routes open new opportunities but exacerbate tensions between global powers. While cooperation remains essential, it faces historical rivalries and military concerns. Thus, the future of the Arctic will be shaped by a delicate balance between exploitation and preservation, between dialogue and rivalry.
