By Abderrahmane MEBTOUL, University Professor, International Expert Doctor of State in Strategic Management 1974
The number of crossings of the Strait of Hormuz has fallen due to the restrictions imposed by Iran and the United States, while incidents affecting boats have multiplied and in the face of growing pessimism on a rapid reopening of this strategic route through which nearly 20/25% of hydrocarbons transit depending on the years, oil prices rise again on April 15, 2026 01h GMT, the Brent barrel being quoted at 105.88 dollars and the Wit 90.32 dollars and the megawatt-hour of gas exceeding 55 dollars.
In addition to the negative impact on the entire global economy, for Africa, the US-Iran conflict in 2026 threatens its growth, with according to the IMF, a potential amputation of 0.2 to 3 percentage points of GDP and if this conflict continues, foreign direct investment (FDI) to Africa in 2026 could fall by 1.5% due to the increase in hydrocarbon prices and maritime transport costs, inflation in particular of all equipment, finished products and semi-finished products also affecting African countries mono-exporters of hydrocarbons.
Also, the Iran-USA-Israel conflict and in particular the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz on the part of both Iran and the USA has shown the importance of maritime transport without forgetting the direct and significant repercussions on land transport (road, rail), acting as a cost multiplier on the entire logistics chain, fuel representing between 24.5% and 30% of the total cost and air cost which has experienced a rapid increase in costs, the share of fuel (kerosene) in their operating expenses having increased from about 25% to 45% since the beginning of the conflict, according to professionals in the sector, resulting in flight cancellations and a rise in ticket prices and paradox that can accelerate the energy transition.
1.- Narrow crossing points (Suez Canals, Panama, Strait of Hormuz) are critical for the flow of goods
Here is the ranking of the main container ports (based on traffic in Equivalent Vingt Pieds – EVP) where China occupies 4 of the top 5 places and 6 of the top 10 places in the world:
-Shanghai (China): Undisputed world leader, exceeding 55 million PE in 2025.
–Singapore (Singapore): Major transshipment hub, 2nd in the world, highly automated.
-Ningbo-Zhoushan (China): 3rd world port, in strong growth.
-Shenzhen (China): Major strategic port in the Pearl River delta.
-Qingdao (China): Key port in northern China.
-Busan (South Korea): Major Hub in South Korea
-Guangzhou (China): another Chinese giant in the world top.
-Rotterdam (Netherlands): first European port, often in the world’s top 10-15.
-Hong Kong (China): despite a recent decline, remains a major port.
We also have ports like Dubai (Jebel Ali) or Los Angeles/Long Beach and Singapore that are distinguished by their 100% automated terminals.
In Africa, the port of Tangier Med (Morocco) is the first in Africa and one of the 20 largest in the world, managing more than 10 million EVPs in 2026, followed by major hubs such as Port-Saïd (Egypt), Durban (South Africa), and Lomé (Togo), the port of Abidjan (Ivory Coast) and the port of Dakar (Senegal).
Shipping is the backbone of the global economy, carrying more than 80% to 90% of the goods traded around the world in volume. A real driver of globalization, it allows the low-cost mass transport of manufactured products, hydrocarbons and raw materials. With more than 11/12 billion tonnes transported, it is vital for international logistics. With economies of scale and giant container carriers, it is the cheapest method of transportation. And this is where the insurance issue must be introduced where maritime insurers demand much higher prices to cover ships crossing conflict zones, due to the increased risks associated with shipping route mining and targeted strikes.
In March and April 2026, in the context of the Iran-US conflict, the costs of war risk insurance in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf increased historically, sometimes reaching more than 1 000% compared to pre-war levels. Rates change daily according to the safety situation, and some insurers have canceled coverage with 72 hours’ notice. Thus, regarding the increase in war risk premiums (AWRP), they represented about 0.2% to 0.25% of the value of the ship before the conflict, rose to reach 1% to 1.5%. Some reports have even reported rates of up to 3% of the hull value for a single crossing, with peaks reaching up to 5% to 10% in extreme cases. Not to mention that shipping companies face higher fuel costs amplified by trajectory deviations, the war extending to the region, including the Red Sea, the increase in premiums applies strongly to oil and NG tankers, directly increasing the cost of energy.
For an oil tanker worth $200 to $300 million, the war risk premium has increased from about $625,000 to more than $7.5 million per trip, and the cost of insurance has increased by more than 12 in some cases, making the passage through the Strait of Hormuz extremely expensive.
2- In reference to the current conflict in the Middle East, we are witnessing increased pressures on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait Red Sea
that Iran wants to block in response to the American blockade. This strait concentrates 12% of world freight trade, a transit route that concentrates 30% of global container traffic and about 8% of petroleum products, which increased the cost of maritime transport by 15 to 20%. Together with the tensions in the Red Sea, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could push up hydrocarbon prices, increasing inflation and threatening the growth of the global economy.
The 355 km wide Red Sea separates Africa from the Arabian Peninsula. 2,250 kilometers long, it flows south into the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden, passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Through this arm of sea usually transit some 27,000 ships each year, according to the geography expert site Géoconfluences, most of which are oil tankers. This makes it the seventh busiest passage in the world – just ahead of the Strait of Hormuz and its 20,000 annual boats. This USA Iran conflict highlighted the importance of the Strait of Hormuz controlled by Iran, located southeast of Bandar Abbas with border countries that are to the north of Iran, and to the southeast the United Arab Emirates, from Jazirah al Hammra, followed by the Sultanate of Oman with a width of about thirty nautical miles (55 km) with a route of two navigation corridors two miles (3.5 km) wide each, one going up, the other descending, the navigation corridors being separated by a two-mile buffer corridor, although its navigation rails are considered as narrow for supertankers, for tanker carriers and for contemporary giant LNG tankers. With Gibraltar, the Bosphorus, Malacca and the Suez Canal, it is one of the largest straits on the planet. Located on a trade route between Asia, the Mediterranean and Europe allowing the passage from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, then the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The closure of the Strait of d’Ormuz would affect the transit of gas and oil because it is the « exit door » of oil from the Gulf region which has 5 of the 10 largest oil producers in the world located in the Middle East as highlighted above, where more than 30% of petroleum products transit, including more than 20% of LNG. The Strait of Ormuz is one of the main shipping routes connecting the oil countries of the Middle East with the Asian, European and North American markets, and the idea of pipelines to bypass it would require a colossal investment.
3.- Iran has announced its intention to introduce a toll system for ships crossing this strategic strait, crucial for oil transport. This tax, which could be paid in cryptocurrencies, is contested internationally and is considered « illegal » where it is important to note that most major international straits (such as Gibraltar or Malacca) are not subject to tolls, freedom of navigation being the rule in international law. But we have toll straits but these countries have devoted significant investments which is very variable, depending on the type, size (tonnage) and load of the ship,
Regarding the toll taking two examples: the Panama Canal recorded record revenues despite climate challenges, reaching nearly $4.98 billion in total revenues for the year from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024. with estimates reaching $5.7 billion over the 2025 financial year and the Suez Canal whose revenues experienced a drastic drop in 2024, falling by about 50 to 60% (losses estimated at nearly $6 billion) due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and a record of USD 8.7 billion in 2022/2023, the crisis in 2024 has reduced traffic, but a slight rebound has begun since then. Although ambitious targets of $13 billion were initially set for 2025, the reality of losses since 2024 has forced a revision of projections.
Iran wants to impose an informal « toll » for some ships, up to $2 million per ship (especially for oil tankers) but the terms of a payment to cross the Strait of Hormuz which would be contrary to international law remain unclear. It is that the situations in Ormuz are attempts to change these rules. And this raises important questions of legality if the shipowner pays the toll without the insurer having consented to the passage. The issue of insurance is therefore central. To stabilize the situation, a naval security mission, led by third countries, could be a solution. The International Maritime Organization, a UN agency in charge of safety at sea, has also said that it is working on a mechanism to guarantee the safety of transit, this force can only be done if there is a UN mandate.
4.-These maritime tensions have an impact on the growth of the global economy where the Middle East contains about 40% of the world’s proven hydrocarbon reserves. For oil we have Saudi Arabia about 262.7 billion barrels, or a quarter of the world’s reserves., Iraq: ~112.5 billion barrels., UAE: ~97.8 billion barrels. Kuwait: ~96.5 billion barrels. Iran: ~93.1 billion barrels. We have 40% of the world’s gas reserves including Iran: 32,100 billion m³ (end of 2020), Qatar: 24,700 billion m³, Saudi Arabia 9800 billion cubic meters of gas, the Emiratis an average of 7,000 billion cubic meters of gas and Iraq 3500 billion cubic meters of gas and any conflict in the region certainly risks affecting production. tensions with Iran have shown. The Americans being autonomous and exporters of hydrocarbons, thanks to shale oil gas, but 8O% of Iranian exports being destined for China at capped prices) and many of Asia being penalized, Iranian exports do not depend on the Strait of Hormuz but on the island of Kharg (or Khârg) located in the north of the Persian Gulf, vital for Tehran’s income which is the main oil export terminal, dealing with about 90 to 95% of the country’s crude But, the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began around April 13, 2026, also threatens Gulf country revenues whose total bill of this war only over six weeks only probably exceeds $200 billion, with the risk of a global oil shock and the Iranian economy losing about $435 million every day with the risk of hyperinflation and strong internal tensions, foreign exchange reserves being less than $30/35 billion at the end of 2025.
The IMF is now counting on a global growth of 3.1% by 2026, compared to the 3.3% anticipated in January this decline of 0.2 points may seem technical, but its accounting reality is brutal: it represents a shortfall of $350 billion in wealth produced on a global scale. If hostilities were to last beyond the end of the year, the IMF predicts a dark scenario where global growth would collapse to 2%. Such a level would be insufficient to absorb the millions of new workers in emerging countries, threatening the social stability of entire regions. Immediate consequence: the IMF predicts a 19% increase in energy prices over the year, and 21% for oil alone. Inflation is rising again, expected to be 3.8% in January, it is expected to be 4.4% on average in the world in 2026. In the worst case – a long war – the barrel could fluctuate around $110 throughout the year, propelling overall inflation to more than 6% causing a global shock where no country will be spared
What conclusion to draw from this conflict where no country has an interest in an extension, neither the Gulf countries, nor the USA the deadline of the elections of mid-November 2026 being crucial for the Republicans in addition to the significant financial cost, nor Israel or a large fraction opposes this war, nor Iran which needs financial resources due to strong internal social tensions, nor the great powers, especially Europe dependent on more than 7O% of imported energy, nor China, one of Iran’s largest importers of hydrocarbons. Whatever the outcome, the map of the Middle East and the world of tomorrow will never be the sas before having to know a profound geostrategic recomposition that must not forget the dramas in Lebanon, Sudan. The future of a multipolar world largely conditions the success of this great enterprise of cohabitation between peoples, which challenges our common conscience. The great challenge that the world is called upon to face in particular is the fight against global warming which is not a view of the mind, the challenge of digital control including artificial intelligence which will upset between 2026/2030/2035 international relations, the behavior of citizens, the future structure of jobs, the management of companies and civil and military institutions.
source : financial afrik
