Several studies indicate that the balance of Greenland’s ice sheet is on the verge of being disrupted by anthropogenic climate change. They also highlight the consequences for our societies.
Greenland’s glaciers are melting at a rapid pace. The Helheim Glacier—seen here calving, meaning producing icebergs—is one of the three largest in Greenland.
Greenland is melting. And at the current rate of global warming, it will reach its point of no return by the end of this century, with dramatic consequences for our societies.
During the 2024 melting season, Greenland’s ice sheet lost about 80 billion tons of ice! According to data from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (Geus), this is far from a record. But for the 28th consecutive year, the region has continued to lose ice. Yet, scientists are clear: the Arctic ice sheet has not yet entered an irreversible collapse. Not yet? Indeed, because at the current rate of anthropogenic climate change, the risk is looming.
European researchers wanted to determine when Greenland will reach its tipping point—the point of no return. In the scientific journal The Cryosphere, they explain how they developed a model simulating, under different warming conditions, what scientists call the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. In other words, the difference between snow accumulation and ice loss due to melting.
Greenland’s ice is on the brink of disappearing forever
Their findings are alarming. The model shows that the point of no return will be reached when Greenland’s ice sheet loses approximately 230 billion tons in a single year. That would represent a 60% reduction of the more than 1,700,000 square kilometers covered by the ice sheet during the pre-industrial era. We are not there yet. However, researchers stress that this scenario corresponds to a global temperature increase of +3.4°C. And current policies—referring to actual policies implemented, not just government promises—seem to be leading us toward a warming of around +3.2°C by 2100. In other words, we’re heading straight for it.
Once this tipping point is reached, Greenland’s ice sheet will be doomed to disappear completely. Not in the next few years, but within a relatively short timeframe of just a few thousand years. The consequences of this melting would be catastrophic—disrupting ocean currents entirely and, most critically, raising sea levels by more than 6 meters! This would be devastating for the billions of people living along coastlines.
Multiple studies push Greenland toward its tipping point
These findings are even more concerning given recent research showing, on one hand, that the ice is melting faster than glaciologists previously thought, and on the other, that unexpected mechanisms are accelerating Greenland’s approach to its point of no return.
In the journal Nature Communications, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology (Germany) explain that algae thriving on Greenland’s glaciers—despite low nutrient availability—are darkening the ice surface. This reduces the efficiency of solar radiation reflection into space, causing temperatures and melting rates to rise. “On Greenland’s west coast, about one-tenth of the ice loss is already caused by these microscopic inhabitants,” says Laura Halbach, the lead author of the study, in a statement.
Interestingly, the model developed by researchers to predict Greenland’s tipping point identifies the west of the region as particularly critical. To understand why, it’s important to note that as ice melts, the weight pressing down on the bedrock decreases, causing the ground to rise. Glaciologists explain that this elevation helps preserve ice-covered areas. However, if melting occurs too rapidly, the landscape cannot adjust quickly enough.
This phenomenon, which researchers consider crucial, is at the core of their model. They demonstrate that as long as the topography of western Greenland remains high, the overall ice loss remains somewhat controlled. But when melting dominates, up to 80% of the ice sheet’s mass could be lost.
The only solution: Drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions
As this threat looms, scientists are mobilizing. Through a large-scale program called Forecasting Tipping Points, they hope to improve our understanding of climate tipping points and develop an early warning system for the resulting climate changes. Among the projects funded by this program, the initiative GRAIL (Greenland ice sheet to Atlantic tipping points from Ice-sheet Loss) aims to study how Greenland’s melting ice releases freshwater into the North Atlantic, affecting ocean circulation—and, in turn, the global climate.
At the same time, it is more urgent than ever to finally reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the worst-case scenario. A new international study published in Science warns that even if warming is limited to 2.7°C—the level projected based on current commitments—the consequences will be severe, and “no sector of society will be spared.”
The only “good” news comes from Paul Bierman, a geoscientist studying Greenland’s environmental history and ice sheet. A researcher at the University of Vermont (USA), he reminds us that Greenland’s harsh climate and vast wilderness have long hindered colonial efforts. In fact, an iceberg calved from this ice sheet was responsible for the sinking of the Titanic in 1912. But most importantly, Bierman asserts that climate change is simply amplifying natural risks in the region—making “resource extraction and military operations in Greenland uncertain, costly, and potentially deadly.” Something that even Donald Trump might not appreciate…
Source: futura sciences
