The blocking of this sea route should fuel the discussions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Both will look for a way out.
Enzo Gueriniet Robin Korda
In October, during the last meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, the Strait of Hormuz had never been mentioned. Almost the entire world’s population did not know its existence, let alone its importance. Seven months later, the world has changed. This small maritime corridor of about fifty kilometers, stuck between Iran and Oman, should occupy a very special place on the menu of discussions between the two leaders, who meet in Beijing from Wednesday to Friday.
The paralysis of the strait, under the effect of the war in Iran, threatens the geopolitical and economic stability of the planet, including China and the United States. The two first world powers, engaged in a fierce rivalry, could try to agree on this file that poisons their lives to varying degrees.
Washington, on the one hand, has been having a deaf dialogue with Tehran for weeks, through Pakistan. The latest Iranian response to American offers is « to be thrown away », Donald Trump took away on Monday. The ceasefire, in force for a month, « is under massive respiratory support ». Meanwhile, the blockade and counter-blockade around the Strait of Hormuz are fueling tensions in the energy markets. This bag of knots damages the image of the White House, unable to get out of a crisis it triggered with Israel.
China could try to monetize its influence
China, for its part, has bargaining power with Iran, which it provides almost all oil revenues. But the regime is slow, for the time being, to force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In all likelihood, Beijing should try to take advantage of its advantage over Washington to extract progress on sensitive issues. The Chinese regime would notoriously like the White House to review its language elements on Taiwan.
Washington also provides this island claimed by China with missiles, planes, and defense systems supposed to protect it from an invasion. « President Xi would like us not to do it, » Trump acknowledged on Monday, indicating that he would have « this discussion » with his Chinese counterpart. Last week, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Beijing. At the end of the meeting, a statement attests that China is ready to « engage more » in a peace process. « It’s almost a first, » says Marc Julienne, director of the Ifri Asia Center and specialist in this country.
Traditionally, China refuses to get involved in international conflicts. From Ukraine to Gaza to the capture of Maduro in Venezuela, Beijing has remained far behind. This time, the Iranian file could change the game. The country would only have advantages in reopening the strait. Its energy supply depends heavily on the Gulf. More than half of its imported oil passes through Ormuz. The partial closure of the strait is already beginning to have very concrete effects on its domestic economy.
Consumption, which was already at an extremely low level, has continued to fall since the beginning of March. « This is really the structural problem of the Chinese economy, and the crisis in the Middle East is aggravating it, » warns Marc Julienne. Inflation has returned after three years of deflation. Production costs are increasing. Companies are less competitive. Their margins are decreasing.
Faced with these warning signs, Beijing should not have difficulty getting out of its diplomatic reserve if it is encouraged to do so. Donald Trump, for his part, hopes to find a way out without losing face… or giving the impression of retreating. « He is too proud to ask for China’s help, but he will certainly need it, » summarizes Karim Émile Bitar, a teacher at Sciences-po Paris. On the other hand, the Chinese will be ready to help him… if he offers something. A balancing act: the American president, impulsive, frontal and often unpredictable, may have to force his nature.
